Fred
Robertson’s Derby Preview
It’s
hard to conjure up a bigger handicapping nightmare: take 20 high
quality yet inexperienced three year olds; put them in a race at a
distance longer than any of them have run; take them to a racetrack
most of them have never been; put them in front of a few hundred
thousand screaming , partying drunks; and for the final touch, make
it impossible for anyone who is around the horses to relax and act
normally, when normalcy, routine, and calm are what pretty much every
thoroughbred—and especially every three year old—needs. Then see
what happens. Sometimes Mine That Bird happens. Sometimes Smarty
Jones happens. Hey, it’s the Kentucky Derby! What do you expect?
Hunter
S. Thompson, a native of Louisville and one of the best sportswriters
of our times, called the Kentucky Derby “Decadent and Depraved.”
While I couldn’t agree with him more, it’s also the greatest
horse race ever with a tradition like no other, an insanely difficult
challenge for anyone who likes to bet on ponies, and a race on which
every punter on the planet has an opinion. Of course I have mine,
and that’s what I plan to give you, ten days out from the Run for
the Roses.
First
off, let me share my method of handicapping, which is something like
a mint julep. Have to start with a solid base: a good Kentucky
bourbon—that’s the gathering of information: talking to other
horseplayers, reading about the prospective entries, watching as many
prep races as possible, and studying each horse’s past
performances. But I can’t forget the mint—that wondrous weed:
this is of course what makes each handicapper’s style unique, the
angles I play, like assessing the trainer more than the rider. The
crushed ice—must have plenty: keeping it cool by maintaining some
objectivity and not falling in love too much with one horse (unless
I’m really in love with the horse—then forget logic!). Need some
sugar too—the love of the process of prognostication, understanding
that there is very little time better spent on this earth than time
at the track. Add in fresh spring water—the nourishment of all
life, and, in this case, the basis for all final decisions: take a
look at the flow of the race, how it will shape up, and which horse
or horses this will favor. Last but not least, add a sprig of mint
for garnish on top—intuition: the hunch, the mother of all good
and bad gambles.
The
Crème de la
Creme
Even
though I’d rather write more about mint juleps, I imagine you are
ready for me to cut to the chase. So, with no further ado, my
selection to win the Derby and be draped with a garland of roses is
Orb. When I told a group of fellow bettors about my
top pick, a few of them smirked, but when I asked “Tell me what he
has done wrong?” no one replied. That’s because there isn’t
really an answer. His trainer is “Shug” McGaughey, one of the
best trainers in horse racing for decades (remember Easy Goer in
1989?—runner-up in the Derby and Preakness, winner of the
Belmont—that brilliant thoroughbred was trained by McGaughey when
he was much younger). “Shug” is not someone who is going to
waste his best chance in years with foolish training tactics. Love
how he regularly works Orb, with no fanfare, breezing 4 furlongs
nice and easy at his home training track. When you have a
Lamborghini, there is no need for excessive tune-ups. Orb has
tactical speed, will love the mile and a quarter, and keeps getting
better and better. Some will knock him as a horse for the course for
Gulfstream, but he will put the lie to that notion on the first
Saturday in May at Churchill.
Second
choice might surprise some, and I have to credit my buddy Erik
Christensen, one of the better handicappers I know, who told me I had
to take a look at this colt as the one to beat: Normandy
Invasion. He has been fifth and second in his
two major preps, but given a few more jumps would have been saying
adios to Verrazano in the Wood. Like Orb, Normandy has one of the
best trainers in the business, Chad Brown, and there is no question
that he will love the extra distance. Expect him to close
brilliantly, but I don’t think he can quite catch Orb. Most
likely, thereafter, Brown will skip the Preakness and shoot for the
Belmont , but if he can win this one—who knows?—this might be a
triple crown horse.
Third
choice is one who is being overlooked, one of Pletcher’s plethora
of likely Derby starters, Overanalyze. Loved the way he
won easily in the Arkansas Derby, appearing to relish the added
distance. There is never anything wrong with having the crafty
Peruvian, Rafael Bejerano, aboard, and he is another horse, like Orb,
who possesses tactical speed. Most of the not-so-wise wise guy
handicappers are knocking the Arkansas Derby as a “soft” Derby
prep. Just remember that the Arkansas Derby has been the final prep
for many more horses that have placed 1st or 2nd
in the Derby than has the Santa Anita Derby, for the past 15 years.
Oaklawn form transfers quite nicely to Churchill, plain and simple,
so watch out for Overanalyze. Real reason I like this horse—I must
be honest. My wife Amy picked him as the winner of the Arkansas Derby
when we were sitting at a nice hotel bar in Nashville, Tennessee,
watching the race. I bet her on who would win, and picked Texas
Bling with Calvin Borel (I believe Bling is still running; never saw
him in the picture). She looked at the horses in the post parade and
immediately said, “Overanalyze, and he will win easily.” That’s
exactly what happened. Like all half-way intelligent men, I have
learned to respect the judgment of my wife, and she told me a few
days ago that she still likes him for the Derby.
Fourth
choice is a horse who gets himself in trouble, sometimes barely
crawling out of the gate, but then closes like a freight train—Java’s
War. Anyone who knows me knows that I favor
closers—that’s one reason Win Willy is one of my all-time
favorite thoroughbreds (another is the fact that a guy named Mac
Robertson, who I used to babysit, trains him). Java is a colt who
will love the extra distance, and who, like Overanalyze, is blessed
with an amazing rider, the French fox, Julien Leparoux. Java’s War
was so far behind in the Blue Grass that it looked as though there
was no way he could get there, but right at the wire, he did, earning
enough points to get him into the Derby. I think he may have run a
little too hard in that race, however, so he may bounce a bit in the
Derby. Still, for my style of handicapping, and again because this
horse is near certain to love the extra distance, I give him a shot.
The
Second Tier
With
the rest of the likely Derby entries, I will not list them
sequentially. However, I do think there are some horses that merit
consideration, horses that will be selected as Derby winners by many
prognosticators, but who I think belong in this second bunch:
Verrazano, Lines of
Battle, Vyjack, and Will
Take Charge.
Actually, I doubt Will Take
Charge will be picked by many, but I am
including him in this bunch because of information gathered from one
particular horseplayer, a guy I often sit by when I am in the turf
room at Horsemen’s. He just knows the game, and when I pressed him
for one pony he liked in the Derby that might be off the beaten path,
Will Take Charge is who he mentioned. I am a bit more dubious about
D. Wayne Lukas trying to work train the horse to get the distance (he
has had two one mile works-- one at Oaklawn and one at Churchill—in
the last two weeks) and also the fact that he will be running the
Derby after a 7 week layoff, but as my fellow Turf room denizen
noted, Lukas is having a much better year than usual. He does have
some fine three year olds, and will be starting at least two in the
Derby, most likely. Will Take Charge is the one with the best
chance. Vyjack is another strong closer. He had a
clear shot at winning the Wood Memorial but had Normandy Invasion go
by him easily. Lines of
Battle may be the European breakthrough horse
in the Derby. Aidan O’Brien has a colt with very intriguing
breeding, especially on the broodmare side, and Battle is another one
that appears to have tactical speed, if he adjusts to the new
environment in America. I will probably put some saver money (this
usually means more money I lose!) on Lines of Battle, and box him top
and bottom in the exacta with my top four picks. Verrazano
deserves respect, and I may just be wrong about him, but I do not
think he will get the distance. Normandy Invasion was getting to him
rapidly in the Wood. Additionally, Verrazano does not rate kindly. I
expect him to be part of the speed but to drop back down the lane.
Third
Bunch
Among
the horses I will put in my third grouping is Goldencents,
one likely to be the selection to win by many. There isn’t much to
be impressed about in another speed horse who I doubt can get the
mile and a quarter. Tood Pletcher’s Revolutionary
(currently Jill Bryne’s top pick) offers a bit more to like with
Calvin Borel, who certainly knows his way around the Churchill oval,
in the irons. Lately, however, Calvin doesn’t find his way into
the winner’s circle very often. Charming
Kitten, another Pletcher charge, ran a strong
race in the Bluegrass, but it was his to win, and he didn’t get the
job done. Palace Malice
has run a couple decent races and may continue to improve. Of all
the horses I have rated this low, he strikes me as the one who could
be laughing at me on the first Saturday in May for picking him this
far back. I used to be pretty high on Super
Ninety Nine, but
then the Santa Anita Derby happened. Still, if he comes back to his
old form, he could be part of the speed scenario. But I don’t think
that’s a good place to be in this race.
And
Maybe To Fill Out The Final Spot In The Superfecta
Some
of my buddies, having read my tipsheets in the past, will look here
for their selections. Sometimes the steed I insult the most ends up
right on top at a good price. It has happened. But it won’t on
May 4th. These horses will be at the back of the pack,
running slowly enough that some inebriated infield patrons may try to
get to the rail to pet them: Itsmyluckyday, Mylute,
Black Onyx, Governor
Charlie, Oxbow, Frac
Daddy, Falling Sky,
and Code West. The one I
fear may embarrass me is Frac Daddy;
he was 2nd in the Arkansas Derby, and I usually regard
that as a key Derby prep race. But he just isn’t in the same league
as most of the field. Black Onyx
won the Spiral at Turfway. Someone explain how that race earns 50
points for the Derby while the Illinois Derby counts 0. That’s
nonsense. Mylute is trained by Tom Amoss, a decent
trainer, but not ready for prime time, and has Rosie Napravnik, who
can certainly ride but who has been in a slump at Keeneland
recently.Oxbow is getting lots of buzz, for some
reason. I like the other Lukas trainee much better. Code
West is owned by Gary and Mary West, trained by
Bob Baffert, but it appears unlikely that he will enter. Many in
Omaha, of course, would have been pulling for him with his local
connections, but I just couldn’t put him in any other bunch but
this one off his form. Governor Charlie
is another Baffert trainee who just beat future 25,000-50,000
claimers at the Sunland Derby. Sorry, Charlie. As for Itsmyluckyday,
my reply is “No, it isn’t.” He’s another speed horse that
will be finished before the real running starts. Finally, Falling
Sky, apparently a believer in Chicken Little’s
warning, will realize at some point that he doesn’t belong in this
race and head back to the barn.
Some
Final Notes
Of
course
some
of
these
prospective
entrants
in
the
Derby
may
not
start.
I
just
went
with
likely
entries
at
this
time,
as
listed
at
www.kentuckyderby.com.
There
are
21 horses
I
considered,
but
of
course
only
20 will
start,
at
most.
Some
others
may
still
come
in
if
those
qualified
decide
not
to
go.
I
will
update
my
predictions
next
Wednesday,
3 days
before
the
Derby,
after
the
post-position
draw,
but
I
doubt
I
change
much.
I’m
very
stubborn.
Hope
to see a whole bunch of my readers and commenters at Horsemen’s
Park on Saturday, May 4th for Derby day. You can
congratulate me or jeer me after the race. I’ll be the guy with a
mint julep, and win or lose, I’ll be smiling.
Fred
Robertson