Sunday, May 19, 2013
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Preakness Preview: Sometimes There is Such a Thing as a Sure Thing
If you saw the Kentucky Derby, you watched it happen. Orb made a huge move on the turn, passing the other runners like they were standing still, or, perhaps "dancing madly backwards," to make a reference to a little known but very good song by Captain Beyond. By the head of the stretch, he was by all of them, and although he ran a bit awkwardly for just a short while, he straightened out nicely, striding out powerfully, and won easily. Orb won like much the best horse, and that's because that's who he is--the best horse. With the best trainer. And the best rider. He is going to win the Preakness this Saturday and, three weeks later, he will win the Belmont to become the first triple crown winner since the great Affirmed bested the amazing Alydar in three straight battles for the ages in 1978.
Some of my readers may be thinking, "You are jinxing this horse! How can you be so confident? Predicting a triple crown before he even wins the Preakness!" Perhaps these same readers are coming up with reasons to bet Departing (he's a fresh horse, coming off a nice victory in the Illinois Derby); or Mylute (solid, fast-closing performance in the Derby); or, if they are completely delusional, Goldencents (sorry, can't even make my mind get whacked out enough to come up with a hypothetical justificaton). Horseplayers are a cynical, skeptical lot, always looking for reasons the favorite won't win, possibly, and there are good reasons to doubt the assertion that a horse will win the triple crown. 34 reasons in a row, in fact.
But here's the deal, folks. I told one of my best friends, and fellow horse racing fan extraordinnaire, Erik Christensen, that Orb would win the Kentucky Derby before he won the Florida Derby. That's a bit of confidence in a horse, and my confidence in Orb then certainly didn't jinx him in either the race at Gulfstream or that little race at Churchill. He was the one wearing the roses in Louisville on the first Saturday in May, and he wasn't even breathing hard.
So if you can actually get 1-1 on Orb Saturday, I advise you to cash in your change collection, empty your wallet, sell your clothes--whatever is possible--to get the most bank on this brilliant horse you can. Because he will win, and a different pace scenario which may emerge in this race won't make any difference because Rosario can place this horse wherever he needs to be, and in such a small field, it's quite unlikely he will encounter any trouble. He ran much farther, since he was wide throughout the Derby, and still won going away. The same thing will happen Saturday--Orb wins the Preakness fairly easily and gets job number two (on the way to job number three at his home track of Belmont) done in style.
But I doubt you are going to get that 1-1 morning line. If anyone at Pimlico and betting nationwide can read a racing form, Orb will probably be 3-5. So you may be looking for horses to play underneath in exactas, trifectas, or superfectas. And some will of course want to put these horses on top with Orb in these wagers as well in case there is an upset. There is only one horse I will play on top of Orb in any exacta, tri, or super--and that is Departing. The fact that he has had some time, using the Illinois Derby as his prep race, is a factor that gives him a chance. He's trained by the very savvy Al Stall, and the connections stick with his regular rider, B.J. Hernandez, which is a smart move. The horse is on the improve, and though it's very unlikely he is improving more than Orb, he's the one horse who I believe has an outside chance to pull the upset.
Another Preakness entrant I like a little is Mylute. Rosie Napravnik had him charging late in the Derby and a similar effort here puts him in the mix. Mylute definitely should be used in exotics. A Derby horse who ran well, but experienced lots of trouble, was Will Take Charge. More gamblers will probably be playing one of the other D. Wayne Lukas trained entries, Oxbow. But Oxbow was up there dueling with the brutal pace in the Derby and probably will bounce badly in the Preakness. Will Take Charge likely improves in the Preakness after being stopped in his big closing run by a fading Verrazano, who bothered him considerably in the stretch. I also know that Larry, one to the most intelligent punters I know, likes Will Take Charge, and I respect Larry's thinking.
That's it--I only like three horses in this race--Departing, Mylute, and Will Take Charge--and I love one horse--Orb.
As to the rest, I suppose I should say something about them. Goldencents. Go ahead, California speed lovers, bet on him again after he was embarrassed in the Derby, eased, and beaten over 45 lengths by Orb. The rest of us will gladly reap the rewards of your parimutuel madness. I already indicated why I think Oxbow will not run well. He doesn't want to run this long anyway, and he is likely to bounce. Governor Charlie is the Baffert entry who I perhaps should respect more because of his works at Churchill, but a person should always remember that Baffert's 25000 claimers pretty much all work that fast too. Winning the Sunland Derby doesn't quite match with winning the Florida and Kentucky Derby either. Itsmyluckyday will get more play than he deserves again, because Mike Smith decides to ride. I and several hundred thousand horse racing fans are still trying to figure out what Mike was doing taking Palace Malice out to the lead in the Derby, setting blistering fractions, so I'm not thinking that Itsmyluckyday is going to be any luckier on this day just because Mike Smith gets on his back. Lukas has entered the sprinter, Titletown Five, which insures a good pace for Orb to run at, and who will be doing the moonwalk backwards like a fast-motion Michael Jackson for the last half mile.
That sums things up for the preview, but I want to share one last detail from what I watched this week. Orb was out grazing at Pimlico, and he decided he wanted to eat some flowers hanging in a pot off a fence nearby where he was chomping grass. His regular gallop girl, Jennifer Patterson, was the person who had taken him out for a graze, and she was laughing and tugging at Orb, who still managed to get a good chomp of those gardenias. Why am I telling you this? Here's why: brilliant trainers know that making a horse happy makes a horse improve. It doesn't matter if that horse is a 2500 claimer or the best stakes horse in the world. You do things like have the same gallop girl always ride and exercise the horse, because the horse loves that gallop girl. You have the gallop girl take the horse out to graze, to have some fun with him. You keep things normal and routine and calm and cool and pleasant. In a thirty second clip on drf.com, I saw Shug McCaughey's subtle brilliance as a trainer in action. There was Orb's regular gallop girl, petting him and laughing, while she grazed the best horse in the world. There was Orb grabbing some flowers--hey, they gave me a ton of these pretty smelling things after the Derby, and I sort of liked them! There was the winner of the Preakness, and next up, the Belmont and the coveted triple crown, the one and only Orb.
Fred Robertson
Some of my readers may be thinking, "You are jinxing this horse! How can you be so confident? Predicting a triple crown before he even wins the Preakness!" Perhaps these same readers are coming up with reasons to bet Departing (he's a fresh horse, coming off a nice victory in the Illinois Derby); or Mylute (solid, fast-closing performance in the Derby); or, if they are completely delusional, Goldencents (sorry, can't even make my mind get whacked out enough to come up with a hypothetical justificaton). Horseplayers are a cynical, skeptical lot, always looking for reasons the favorite won't win, possibly, and there are good reasons to doubt the assertion that a horse will win the triple crown. 34 reasons in a row, in fact.
But here's the deal, folks. I told one of my best friends, and fellow horse racing fan extraordinnaire, Erik Christensen, that Orb would win the Kentucky Derby before he won the Florida Derby. That's a bit of confidence in a horse, and my confidence in Orb then certainly didn't jinx him in either the race at Gulfstream or that little race at Churchill. He was the one wearing the roses in Louisville on the first Saturday in May, and he wasn't even breathing hard.
So if you can actually get 1-1 on Orb Saturday, I advise you to cash in your change collection, empty your wallet, sell your clothes--whatever is possible--to get the most bank on this brilliant horse you can. Because he will win, and a different pace scenario which may emerge in this race won't make any difference because Rosario can place this horse wherever he needs to be, and in such a small field, it's quite unlikely he will encounter any trouble. He ran much farther, since he was wide throughout the Derby, and still won going away. The same thing will happen Saturday--Orb wins the Preakness fairly easily and gets job number two (on the way to job number three at his home track of Belmont) done in style.
But I doubt you are going to get that 1-1 morning line. If anyone at Pimlico and betting nationwide can read a racing form, Orb will probably be 3-5. So you may be looking for horses to play underneath in exactas, trifectas, or superfectas. And some will of course want to put these horses on top with Orb in these wagers as well in case there is an upset. There is only one horse I will play on top of Orb in any exacta, tri, or super--and that is Departing. The fact that he has had some time, using the Illinois Derby as his prep race, is a factor that gives him a chance. He's trained by the very savvy Al Stall, and the connections stick with his regular rider, B.J. Hernandez, which is a smart move. The horse is on the improve, and though it's very unlikely he is improving more than Orb, he's the one horse who I believe has an outside chance to pull the upset.
Another Preakness entrant I like a little is Mylute. Rosie Napravnik had him charging late in the Derby and a similar effort here puts him in the mix. Mylute definitely should be used in exotics. A Derby horse who ran well, but experienced lots of trouble, was Will Take Charge. More gamblers will probably be playing one of the other D. Wayne Lukas trained entries, Oxbow. But Oxbow was up there dueling with the brutal pace in the Derby and probably will bounce badly in the Preakness. Will Take Charge likely improves in the Preakness after being stopped in his big closing run by a fading Verrazano, who bothered him considerably in the stretch. I also know that Larry, one to the most intelligent punters I know, likes Will Take Charge, and I respect Larry's thinking.
That's it--I only like three horses in this race--Departing, Mylute, and Will Take Charge--and I love one horse--Orb.
As to the rest, I suppose I should say something about them. Goldencents. Go ahead, California speed lovers, bet on him again after he was embarrassed in the Derby, eased, and beaten over 45 lengths by Orb. The rest of us will gladly reap the rewards of your parimutuel madness. I already indicated why I think Oxbow will not run well. He doesn't want to run this long anyway, and he is likely to bounce. Governor Charlie is the Baffert entry who I perhaps should respect more because of his works at Churchill, but a person should always remember that Baffert's 25000 claimers pretty much all work that fast too. Winning the Sunland Derby doesn't quite match with winning the Florida and Kentucky Derby either. Itsmyluckyday will get more play than he deserves again, because Mike Smith decides to ride. I and several hundred thousand horse racing fans are still trying to figure out what Mike was doing taking Palace Malice out to the lead in the Derby, setting blistering fractions, so I'm not thinking that Itsmyluckyday is going to be any luckier on this day just because Mike Smith gets on his back. Lukas has entered the sprinter, Titletown Five, which insures a good pace for Orb to run at, and who will be doing the moonwalk backwards like a fast-motion Michael Jackson for the last half mile.
That sums things up for the preview, but I want to share one last detail from what I watched this week. Orb was out grazing at Pimlico, and he decided he wanted to eat some flowers hanging in a pot off a fence nearby where he was chomping grass. His regular gallop girl, Jennifer Patterson, was the person who had taken him out for a graze, and she was laughing and tugging at Orb, who still managed to get a good chomp of those gardenias. Why am I telling you this? Here's why: brilliant trainers know that making a horse happy makes a horse improve. It doesn't matter if that horse is a 2500 claimer or the best stakes horse in the world. You do things like have the same gallop girl always ride and exercise the horse, because the horse loves that gallop girl. You have the gallop girl take the horse out to graze, to have some fun with him. You keep things normal and routine and calm and cool and pleasant. In a thirty second clip on drf.com, I saw Shug McCaughey's subtle brilliance as a trainer in action. There was Orb's regular gallop girl, petting him and laughing, while she grazed the best horse in the world. There was Orb grabbing some flowers--hey, they gave me a ton of these pretty smelling things after the Derby, and I sort of liked them! There was the winner of the Preakness, and next up, the Belmont and the coveted triple crown, the one and only Orb.
Fred Robertson
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
Last Saturday, Derby Day, I got up to do some final handicapping at about 5 a.m. After taking my wonder dog Zoey for a brisk walk (it was cold and misty last Saturday, if you recall) I got back in the house, made myself some coffee, and sat down at the computer to read Daily Racing Form formulator past performances and watch some key races of horses entered at Churchill on Derby Day. I went up to Horsemen's at 7:45 ( HP opened last Saturday at 8 a.m. since first Churchill Downs post was at 9:30). By then, it was raining harder, and it was a cold rain. But I stood right outside the doors with a pack of fellow punters, ready to scamper in and get a couple tables saved.
When the security guard let us in, I along with everyone else hustled to secure a spot. And later that day, when I and a group of my best friends (who love horse racing almost as much as I do) were all chanting "OOORRRBBBB" in the minutes before the Derby, and when Dana Christensen, Erik Christensen, and I were all jumping up and down in unison pumping our fists as Orb blew by everyone else in the stretch-- like they were standing still--it was well worth a 5 a.m. wake-up and waiting outside in the freezing rain.
There is nothing like the excitement of a horse race. Even a televised horse race, which is after all what we were watching last Saturday, puts me on edge, followed by release, and a rush of adrenaline, as soon as the ponies spring from the gate. But that's still not comparable to being at a live horse race. Up next to the track, listening to the sounds as the gate crew loads the thoroughbreds, smelling the mixture of beer and Italian sausage and peppers from the outdoor food and beverage stands as you head out to the grandstand, yelling your fool head off as your horse surges or fades down the stretch. And you are right there to see it, feel it, taste it, and love it---live horse racing!
That's what Horsemen's Park has to offer this weekend, along with many other fun activities for everyone who comes to the track at 6303 Q Street. Post times are 6 p.m. for opening day, Friday May 10; 2 p.m. for Saturday, May 11; and 2 p.m. for Sunday, May 12. There are four races on Friday, five races on Saturday, and six races on Sunday. Entries are already posted for all three days, and there are full fields of 10 horses slated to run in 7 of the 15 races, fields of 9 in 4 races, and fields of 8, 7, 6, and 5 in the remaining four races.
You may wonder why I am telling you the number of horses in each race if you are new to this game, but if you are a grizzled racetrack veteran like me, you know that larger fields yield better gambling value, and I am guessing that a lot of my readers understand this and may be as happy as I am to hear that Horsemen's has mainly full fields for the races this weekend.
I am not going to give you any selections in my blog this week. Hey, I gave you the Derby winner, Orb, who paid 12.80 last Saturday! What more do you want? Well, if you do want my selections for the live races this weekend, you can get them. You will just have to pay $1 for them, if you purchase my Fred Sheet, or you can pay $1 for former AkSarBen and Oaklawn announcer and current Oaklawn handicapper Terry Wallace's tipsheet, Terry's Touts (or even better, buy both for $2!). All proceeds from these purchases go to a very good cause, the Dylan Krajicek Memorial Scholarship Fund, with a percentage of proceeds on Sunday, Mother's Day, going to the Susan G. Komen Fund to fight breast cancer. I will be selling the tipsheets, and Bonnie in the turf room will also be selling them, as well as a few other volunteers for the Krajicek Memorial Scholarship fund. But the main crew who will greet you in the parking lot, will be a group of hard working young women, Fred's Fillies, offering everyone a chance to purchase the top notch predictions of Terry Wallace and me. As an added bonus, Rob Tuel will add his longshots and best bet selections to Terry's Touts, and resident Horsemen's handicapping guru Mike Kratville will add the same to the Fred Sheet.
Activities at Horsemen's This Weekend
There are almost too many to list, but I'm going to give it a try.
Friday: The weekend kicks off with 4 races, including the feature race, the Falls Amiss Stakes, run at one mile, with a purse of $30000. Live music is provided in the Miller Lite beer garden and food court by Sound Bite. There will be a free t-shirt toss from the Miller Lite girls after every race. On Friday, two winners will be drawn to receive South Point Las Vegas prize packages, which award $500 cash, a 2 night suite stay, and $400 airfare courtesy of Team Rosso Real Estate of Omaha. Get out to Horsemen's after getting off work and start your weekend right.
Saturday: 5 races, including two features--The $30,000 Fantango Lady Stakes and the $30,000 Skunktail Stakes, both named in honor of two all-time great Nebraska-breds. Saturday will feature Z-92's Todd and Tyler 20th Anniversary Event, Camel and Ostrich races, and live music by Down to Here. And 2 more winners will be drawn for the Las Vegas prize package to South Point Casino. In addition, on Saturday, one of the greatest trainers of thoroughbreds ever, Jack Van Berg, will be at Horsemen's with co-author and former Fonner Park announcer, Chris Kotulak, signing his biography: "Jack Van Berg: From Grit to Glory." I got to see Jack Van Berg at Horsemen's a couple of years ago for one of the Saturday handicapping seminars; getting to meet a legend and great person like Jack Van Berg, who still loves his Nebraska roots in horse racing, was a fantastic experience.
Sunday: It's Mother's Day and there are lots of events to honor women: "Gallop for the Cure" for Susan G. Komen Nebraska, and 5 Mother's Day Prize Package drawings, with each prize package valued at $500. In addition, a drawing will be held to win a Budweiser VIP package for 2 to St. Louis July 19-21, which includes airfare and hotel, as well as a VIP tour of the Budweiser brewery and tickets for a Cardinals/Brewers ball game. Live music will be provided by High Heel and the Sneakers in the Miller Lite Beer Garden. The feature race is the $30,000 Who Doctor Who Handicap, named for perhaps the greatest Nebraska-bred ever to race, Herb Riecken's amazing sprinter who earned over $800,000 in his illustrious career.
There's simply nothing not to like! Come to Horsemen's, have a great time, jump up and down, yell for your horse, cash some tickets, eat some great food, have some refreshing drinks--simply have fun this weekend at Horsemen's Park!
Fred Robertson
When the security guard let us in, I along with everyone else hustled to secure a spot. And later that day, when I and a group of my best friends (who love horse racing almost as much as I do) were all chanting "OOORRRBBBB" in the minutes before the Derby, and when Dana Christensen, Erik Christensen, and I were all jumping up and down in unison pumping our fists as Orb blew by everyone else in the stretch-- like they were standing still--it was well worth a 5 a.m. wake-up and waiting outside in the freezing rain.
There is nothing like the excitement of a horse race. Even a televised horse race, which is after all what we were watching last Saturday, puts me on edge, followed by release, and a rush of adrenaline, as soon as the ponies spring from the gate. But that's still not comparable to being at a live horse race. Up next to the track, listening to the sounds as the gate crew loads the thoroughbreds, smelling the mixture of beer and Italian sausage and peppers from the outdoor food and beverage stands as you head out to the grandstand, yelling your fool head off as your horse surges or fades down the stretch. And you are right there to see it, feel it, taste it, and love it---live horse racing!
That's what Horsemen's Park has to offer this weekend, along with many other fun activities for everyone who comes to the track at 6303 Q Street. Post times are 6 p.m. for opening day, Friday May 10; 2 p.m. for Saturday, May 11; and 2 p.m. for Sunday, May 12. There are four races on Friday, five races on Saturday, and six races on Sunday. Entries are already posted for all three days, and there are full fields of 10 horses slated to run in 7 of the 15 races, fields of 9 in 4 races, and fields of 8, 7, 6, and 5 in the remaining four races.
You may wonder why I am telling you the number of horses in each race if you are new to this game, but if you are a grizzled racetrack veteran like me, you know that larger fields yield better gambling value, and I am guessing that a lot of my readers understand this and may be as happy as I am to hear that Horsemen's has mainly full fields for the races this weekend.
I am not going to give you any selections in my blog this week. Hey, I gave you the Derby winner, Orb, who paid 12.80 last Saturday! What more do you want? Well, if you do want my selections for the live races this weekend, you can get them. You will just have to pay $1 for them, if you purchase my Fred Sheet, or you can pay $1 for former AkSarBen and Oaklawn announcer and current Oaklawn handicapper Terry Wallace's tipsheet, Terry's Touts (or even better, buy both for $2!). All proceeds from these purchases go to a very good cause, the Dylan Krajicek Memorial Scholarship Fund, with a percentage of proceeds on Sunday, Mother's Day, going to the Susan G. Komen Fund to fight breast cancer. I will be selling the tipsheets, and Bonnie in the turf room will also be selling them, as well as a few other volunteers for the Krajicek Memorial Scholarship fund. But the main crew who will greet you in the parking lot, will be a group of hard working young women, Fred's Fillies, offering everyone a chance to purchase the top notch predictions of Terry Wallace and me. As an added bonus, Rob Tuel will add his longshots and best bet selections to Terry's Touts, and resident Horsemen's handicapping guru Mike Kratville will add the same to the Fred Sheet.
Activities at Horsemen's This Weekend
There are almost too many to list, but I'm going to give it a try.
Friday: The weekend kicks off with 4 races, including the feature race, the Falls Amiss Stakes, run at one mile, with a purse of $30000. Live music is provided in the Miller Lite beer garden and food court by Sound Bite. There will be a free t-shirt toss from the Miller Lite girls after every race. On Friday, two winners will be drawn to receive South Point Las Vegas prize packages, which award $500 cash, a 2 night suite stay, and $400 airfare courtesy of Team Rosso Real Estate of Omaha. Get out to Horsemen's after getting off work and start your weekend right.
Saturday: 5 races, including two features--The $30,000 Fantango Lady Stakes and the $30,000 Skunktail Stakes, both named in honor of two all-time great Nebraska-breds. Saturday will feature Z-92's Todd and Tyler 20th Anniversary Event, Camel and Ostrich races, and live music by Down to Here. And 2 more winners will be drawn for the Las Vegas prize package to South Point Casino. In addition, on Saturday, one of the greatest trainers of thoroughbreds ever, Jack Van Berg, will be at Horsemen's with co-author and former Fonner Park announcer, Chris Kotulak, signing his biography: "Jack Van Berg: From Grit to Glory." I got to see Jack Van Berg at Horsemen's a couple of years ago for one of the Saturday handicapping seminars; getting to meet a legend and great person like Jack Van Berg, who still loves his Nebraska roots in horse racing, was a fantastic experience.
Sunday: It's Mother's Day and there are lots of events to honor women: "Gallop for the Cure" for Susan G. Komen Nebraska, and 5 Mother's Day Prize Package drawings, with each prize package valued at $500. In addition, a drawing will be held to win a Budweiser VIP package for 2 to St. Louis July 19-21, which includes airfare and hotel, as well as a VIP tour of the Budweiser brewery and tickets for a Cardinals/Brewers ball game. Live music will be provided by High Heel and the Sneakers in the Miller Lite Beer Garden. The feature race is the $30,000 Who Doctor Who Handicap, named for perhaps the greatest Nebraska-bred ever to race, Herb Riecken's amazing sprinter who earned over $800,000 in his illustrious career.
There's simply nothing not to like! Come to Horsemen's, have a great time, jump up and down, yell for your horse, cash some tickets, eat some great food, have some refreshing drinks--simply have fun this weekend at Horsemen's Park!
Fred Robertson
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
Derby Predictions: Three Days and Counting!
The Selections
I told you I was stubborn. Well, I am. Nothing I have seen in the workouts, or in the reading I have done, has changed my mind, or my predictions, not even slightly. Orb and Normandy Invasion remain my top two selections, since their preparation for the Derby has been flawless.
Orb also has the benefit of Joel Rosario in the irons, and Rosario is currently red hot. He finished the Keeneland spring meet brilliantly, and has continued to pilot horses at Churchill with the same intelligence and skill. Orb is listed as the 7-2 favorite, but breaking from the 16 hole, which won't hurt him at all, may discourage some betting on him. Expect more like 4-1 or 9-2, depending on how many more races Rosario wins this week and on Saturday. Orb will probably be the favorite or second favorite with Verrazano being the other horse to receive the most support.
Normandy Invasion has been working effortlessly yet fast. All systems are go, and the morning line is 12-1. That's wrong, since he will probably be around 7-1. Lots of wise folks are identifying him as a leading contender, and that has to bring down his odds. Chad Brown sticks with Javier Castellano aboard, who nearly got Normandy up for the win in the Wood Memorial, a key prep race. Nothing has happened which makes me like this horse any less.
It's a great bet to box Orb and Normandy Invasion in the exacta. Exactas pay well with such a large field and if these two run 1,2 I will be very happy on Saturday.
Overanalyze and Java's War remain the rest of the superfecta in my view, simply because I love both of their last outs, in the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes.
When horses win their prep race easily and impressively, as did Overanalyze, Mike Watchmaker disparages the prep race as "soft" and sets morning line odds of 15-1. It's quite possible those odds will be accurate, which means that Overanalyze is a solid bet, a much better wager than on one of Todd Pletcher's other charges, the afore-mentioned likely co-favorite Verrazano. Remember, my wife loves this horse, and she's much smarter than I will ever be. I love my wife so I have to bet on Overanalyze and use him with the two choices above and the one below for trifecta and superfecta boxes.
My other choice in the top four remains Java's War. Yes, he was all out to win the Bluegrass, but he won it. He has Leparoux right back in the saddle, and he will be flying, with the mile and a quarter to his advantage without question.
The Horses Others Like But I Say You Should Not Use
Those who know me would say "Fred doesn't like to bet on speed horses and will throw them all out." Those who know me are correct about this, but I am rational enough to select a speed horse when the race shapes up in a way to benefit the speed. The Derby is very rarely that race, and it certainly isn't that race this year. Therefore, I recommend you throw out Goldencents, bound to be bet down when he most likely will not light the board; as well as Verrazano, who will not get the distance. Both will be overbet and will not represent good value, unless I'm dead wrong and that's the exacta instead of Orb/Normandy Invasion. In that case, I eat crow and try to hit the Derby next year, which is usually what happens.
For some reason, others are high on Oxbow and Revolutionary, but I see nothing much to like in these two, and think you should resist the temptation to bet on D. Wayne Lukas' weaker entry and another of Pletcher's plentitude of ponies that will likely finish in the middle of the pack.
Horses Who Have A Chance To Pull A Big Upset
In my previous blog post, I already identified these darkhorses: Lines of Battle, Will Take Charge, Vijack, and Palace Malice. I'm also going to say Frac Daddy has a chance to be part of a trifecta or superfecta, and pump up the price. Lines of Battle is still my number one longshot selection who I will be betting across the board and using top and bottom in exactas with my top four picks. Why not? Maybe it's time for Aidan O'Brien to get over the hump in the Derby. Remember, even Todd Pletcher eventually did win the Roses.
The Rest
A couple three year olds who weren't expected to start are now in due to defections and reasonable decisions, like those made by Bob Baffert in going with neither of his potential Derby starters. Golden Soul and Giant Finish have enough Derby points to make the gate, but not enough Derby quality to make a difference. Fear the Kitten is on the also eligible and will most likely run if there are scratches in the next few days or the morning of the Derby. Again, Fear the Kitten may run but I seriously doubt if he's in the running down the stretch if he does draw in. Black Onyx, Mylute, Itsmyluckyday, Falling Sky,and Charming Kitten round out the field, in the back.
Intangibles
You never know--it might rain constantly in Louisville for the next three days and make Churchill a muddy mess. It certainly appears like it's going to do that here. Current predictions call for rain showers on Derby Day in Louisville. However, we all know weather forecasters are about as reliable as Kentucky Derby handicappers. I am not going to speculate on how a sloppy or muddy track would affect the race, but it's something you should consider in your final betting decisions should the weather turn as ugly in Kentucky as what we are experiencing today in Omaha.
Last Words
I make my selections with confidence, because that's the only way to make predictions, but I know I very easily could be more wrong than the newspapers that said "Dewey Wins!" Yes, that reference shows my age, and the reference may also make you think about Harry Truman and Missouri--the "show me" state. If you disagree with my handicapping, go ahead and "show me" in your comments, and perhaps we can have a lively discussion leading up to the greatest horse race in the world!
Whatever you decide to wager, I wish you the best of days this Saturday and an exciting time at Horsemen's Park or at home at your own Derby party (but the Horsemen's Park Derby Day Party is the place to be!) Make some money, honey.
Fred Robertson
I told you I was stubborn. Well, I am. Nothing I have seen in the workouts, or in the reading I have done, has changed my mind, or my predictions, not even slightly. Orb and Normandy Invasion remain my top two selections, since their preparation for the Derby has been flawless.
Orb also has the benefit of Joel Rosario in the irons, and Rosario is currently red hot. He finished the Keeneland spring meet brilliantly, and has continued to pilot horses at Churchill with the same intelligence and skill. Orb is listed as the 7-2 favorite, but breaking from the 16 hole, which won't hurt him at all, may discourage some betting on him. Expect more like 4-1 or 9-2, depending on how many more races Rosario wins this week and on Saturday. Orb will probably be the favorite or second favorite with Verrazano being the other horse to receive the most support.
Normandy Invasion has been working effortlessly yet fast. All systems are go, and the morning line is 12-1. That's wrong, since he will probably be around 7-1. Lots of wise folks are identifying him as a leading contender, and that has to bring down his odds. Chad Brown sticks with Javier Castellano aboard, who nearly got Normandy up for the win in the Wood Memorial, a key prep race. Nothing has happened which makes me like this horse any less.
It's a great bet to box Orb and Normandy Invasion in the exacta. Exactas pay well with such a large field and if these two run 1,2 I will be very happy on Saturday.
Overanalyze and Java's War remain the rest of the superfecta in my view, simply because I love both of their last outs, in the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes.
When horses win their prep race easily and impressively, as did Overanalyze, Mike Watchmaker disparages the prep race as "soft" and sets morning line odds of 15-1. It's quite possible those odds will be accurate, which means that Overanalyze is a solid bet, a much better wager than on one of Todd Pletcher's other charges, the afore-mentioned likely co-favorite Verrazano. Remember, my wife loves this horse, and she's much smarter than I will ever be. I love my wife so I have to bet on Overanalyze and use him with the two choices above and the one below for trifecta and superfecta boxes.
My other choice in the top four remains Java's War. Yes, he was all out to win the Bluegrass, but he won it. He has Leparoux right back in the saddle, and he will be flying, with the mile and a quarter to his advantage without question.
The Horses Others Like But I Say You Should Not Use
Those who know me would say "Fred doesn't like to bet on speed horses and will throw them all out." Those who know me are correct about this, but I am rational enough to select a speed horse when the race shapes up in a way to benefit the speed. The Derby is very rarely that race, and it certainly isn't that race this year. Therefore, I recommend you throw out Goldencents, bound to be bet down when he most likely will not light the board; as well as Verrazano, who will not get the distance. Both will be overbet and will not represent good value, unless I'm dead wrong and that's the exacta instead of Orb/Normandy Invasion. In that case, I eat crow and try to hit the Derby next year, which is usually what happens.
For some reason, others are high on Oxbow and Revolutionary, but I see nothing much to like in these two, and think you should resist the temptation to bet on D. Wayne Lukas' weaker entry and another of Pletcher's plentitude of ponies that will likely finish in the middle of the pack.
Horses Who Have A Chance To Pull A Big Upset
In my previous blog post, I already identified these darkhorses: Lines of Battle, Will Take Charge, Vijack, and Palace Malice. I'm also going to say Frac Daddy has a chance to be part of a trifecta or superfecta, and pump up the price. Lines of Battle is still my number one longshot selection who I will be betting across the board and using top and bottom in exactas with my top four picks. Why not? Maybe it's time for Aidan O'Brien to get over the hump in the Derby. Remember, even Todd Pletcher eventually did win the Roses.
The Rest
A couple three year olds who weren't expected to start are now in due to defections and reasonable decisions, like those made by Bob Baffert in going with neither of his potential Derby starters. Golden Soul and Giant Finish have enough Derby points to make the gate, but not enough Derby quality to make a difference. Fear the Kitten is on the also eligible and will most likely run if there are scratches in the next few days or the morning of the Derby. Again, Fear the Kitten may run but I seriously doubt if he's in the running down the stretch if he does draw in. Black Onyx, Mylute, Itsmyluckyday, Falling Sky,and Charming Kitten round out the field, in the back.
Intangibles
You never know--it might rain constantly in Louisville for the next three days and make Churchill a muddy mess. It certainly appears like it's going to do that here. Current predictions call for rain showers on Derby Day in Louisville. However, we all know weather forecasters are about as reliable as Kentucky Derby handicappers. I am not going to speculate on how a sloppy or muddy track would affect the race, but it's something you should consider in your final betting decisions should the weather turn as ugly in Kentucky as what we are experiencing today in Omaha.
Last Words
I make my selections with confidence, because that's the only way to make predictions, but I know I very easily could be more wrong than the newspapers that said "Dewey Wins!" Yes, that reference shows my age, and the reference may also make you think about Harry Truman and Missouri--the "show me" state. If you disagree with my handicapping, go ahead and "show me" in your comments, and perhaps we can have a lively discussion leading up to the greatest horse race in the world!
Whatever you decide to wager, I wish you the best of days this Saturday and an exciting time at Horsemen's Park or at home at your own Derby party (but the Horsemen's Park Derby Day Party is the place to be!) Make some money, honey.
Fred Robertson
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