Derby Predictions: Three Days and Counting!

The Selections

I told you I was stubborn. Well, I am.  Nothing I have seen in the workouts, or in the reading I have done, has changed my mind, or my predictions, not even slightly.  Orb and Normandy Invasion remain my top two selections, since their preparation for the Derby has been flawless.

Orb also has the benefit of  Joel Rosario in the irons, and Rosario is currently red hot. He finished the Keeneland spring meet brilliantly, and has continued to pilot horses at Churchill with the same intelligence and skill. Orb is listed as the 7-2 favorite, but breaking from the 16 hole, which won't hurt him at all, may discourage some betting on him.  Expect more like 4-1 or 9-2, depending on how many more races Rosario wins this week and on Saturday.  Orb will probably be the favorite or second favorite with Verrazano being the other horse to receive the most support.

 Normandy Invasion has been working effortlessly yet fast.  All systems are go, and the morning line is 12-1.  That's wrong, since he will probably be around 7-1.  Lots of wise folks are identifying him as a leading contender, and that has to bring down his odds. Chad Brown sticks with Javier Castellano aboard, who nearly got Normandy up for the win in the Wood Memorial, a key prep race.  Nothing has happened which makes me like this horse any less.

It's a great bet to box Orb and Normandy Invasion in the exacta.  Exactas pay well with such a large field and if these two run 1,2 I will be very happy on Saturday.

Overanalyze and Java's War remain the rest of the superfecta in my view, simply because I love both of their last outs, in the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes.

When horses win their prep race easily and impressively, as did Overanalyze,  Mike Watchmaker disparages the prep race as "soft" and sets morning line odds of 15-1.  It's quite possible those odds will be accurate, which means that Overanalyze is a solid bet, a much better wager than on one of Todd Pletcher's other charges, the afore-mentioned likely co-favorite Verrazano.  Remember, my wife loves this horse, and she's much smarter than I will ever be.  I love my wife so I have to bet on Overanalyze and use him with the two choices above and the one below for trifecta and superfecta boxes.

My other choice in the top four remains Java's War.  Yes, he was all out to win the Bluegrass, but he won it. He has Leparoux right back in the saddle, and he will be flying, with the mile and a quarter to his advantage without question.

The Horses Others Like But I Say You Should Not Use

Those who know me would say "Fred doesn't like to bet on speed horses and will throw them all out."  Those who know me are correct about this, but I am rational enough to select a speed horse when the race shapes up in a way to benefit the speed.  The Derby is very rarely that race, and it certainly isn't that race this year. Therefore, I recommend you throw out Goldencents, bound to be bet down when he most likely will not light the board;  as well as Verrazano, who will not get the distance.  Both will be overbet and will not represent good value, unless I'm dead wrong and that's the exacta instead of Orb/Normandy Invasion.  In that case, I eat crow and try to hit the Derby next year, which is usually what happens.

For some reason, others are high on Oxbow and Revolutionary, but I see nothing much to like in these two, and think you should resist the temptation to bet on D. Wayne Lukas' weaker entry and another of Pletcher's  plentitude of ponies that will likely finish in the middle of the pack.

Horses Who Have A Chance To Pull A Big Upset

In my previous blog post, I already identified these darkhorses: Lines of Battle, Will Take Charge, Vijack, and Palace Malice.  I'm also going to say Frac Daddy has a chance to be part of a trifecta or superfecta, and pump up the price.  Lines of Battle is still my number one longshot selection who I will be betting across the board and using top and bottom in exactas with my top four picks.  Why not?  Maybe it's time for Aidan O'Brien to get over the hump in the Derby.  Remember, even Todd Pletcher eventually did win the Roses.

The Rest

A couple three year olds who weren't expected to start are now in due to defections and reasonable decisions, like those made by Bob Baffert in going with neither of his potential Derby starters. Golden Soul and Giant Finish have enough Derby points to make the gate, but not enough Derby quality to make a difference.  Fear the Kitten is on the also eligible and will most likely run if there are scratches in the next few days or the morning of the Derby.  Again, Fear the Kitten may run but I seriously doubt if he's in the running down the stretch if he does draw in. Black Onyx, Mylute, Itsmyluckyday, Falling Sky,and Charming Kitten round out the field, in the back.

Intangibles

You never know--it might rain constantly in Louisville for the next three days and make Churchill a muddy mess.  It certainly appears like it's going to do that here.  Current predictions call for rain showers on Derby Day in Louisville. However, we all know weather forecasters are about as reliable as Kentucky Derby handicappers.  I am not going to speculate on how a sloppy or muddy track would affect the race, but it's something you should consider in your final betting decisions should the weather turn as ugly in Kentucky as what we are experiencing today in Omaha.

Last Words

I make my selections with confidence, because that's the only way to make predictions, but I know I very easily could be more wrong than the newspapers that said "Dewey Wins!"  Yes, that reference shows my age, and the reference may also make you think about Harry Truman and Missouri--the "show me" state.  If you disagree with my handicapping, go ahead and "show me" in your comments, and perhaps we can have a lively discussion leading up to the greatest horse race in the world!

Whatever you decide to wager, I wish you the best of days this Saturday and an exciting time at Horsemen's Park or at home at your own Derby party (but the Horsemen's Park Derby Day Party is the place to be!)  Make some money, honey.

Fred Robertson

Fred Robertson’s Derby Preview

It’s hard to conjure up a bigger handicapping nightmare: take 20 high quality yet inexperienced three year olds; put them in a race at a distance longer than any of them have run; take them to a racetrack most of them have never been; put them in front of a few hundred thousand screaming , partying drunks; and for the final touch, make it impossible for anyone who is around the horses to relax and act normally, when normalcy, routine, and calm are what pretty much every thoroughbred—and especially every three year old—needs. Then see what happens. Sometimes Mine That Bird happens. Sometimes Smarty Jones happens. Hey, it’s the Kentucky Derby! What do you expect?

Hunter S. Thompson, a native of Louisville and one of the best sportswriters of our times, called the Kentucky Derby “Decadent and Depraved.” While I couldn’t agree with him more, it’s also the greatest horse race ever with a tradition like no other, an insanely difficult challenge for anyone who likes to bet on ponies, and a race on which every punter on the planet has an opinion. Of course I have mine, and that’s what I plan to give you, ten days out from the Run for the Roses.

First off, let me share my method of handicapping, which is something like a mint julep. Have to start with a solid base: a good Kentucky bourbon—that’s the gathering of information: talking to other horseplayers, reading about the prospective entries, watching as many prep races as possible, and studying each horse’s past performances. But I can’t forget the mint—that wondrous weed: this is of course what makes each handicapper’s style unique, the angles I play, like assessing the trainer more than the rider. The crushed ice—must have plenty: keeping it cool by maintaining some objectivity and not falling in love too much with one horse (unless I’m really in love with the horse—then forget logic!). Need some sugar too—the love of the process of prognostication, understanding that there is very little time better spent on this earth than time at the track. Add in fresh spring water—the nourishment of all life, and, in this case, the basis for all final decisions: take a look at the flow of the race, how it will shape up, and which horse or horses this will favor. Last but not least, add a sprig of mint for garnish on top—intuition: the hunch, the mother of all good and bad gambles.

The Crème de la Creme

Even though I’d rather write more about mint juleps, I imagine you are ready for me to cut to the chase. So, with no further ado, my selection to win the Derby and be draped with a garland of roses is Orb. When I told a group of fellow bettors about my top pick, a few of them smirked, but when I asked “Tell me what he has done wrong?” no one replied. That’s because there isn’t really an answer. His trainer is “Shug” McGaughey, one of the best trainers in horse racing for decades (remember Easy Goer in 1989?—runner-up in the Derby and Preakness, winner of the Belmont—that brilliant thoroughbred was trained by McGaughey when he was much younger). “Shug” is not someone who is going to waste his best chance in years with foolish training tactics. Love how he regularly works Orb, with no fanfare, breezing 4 furlongs nice and easy at his home training track. When you have a Lamborghini, there is no need for excessive tune-ups. Orb has tactical speed, will love the mile and a quarter, and keeps getting better and better. Some will knock him as a horse for the course for Gulfstream, but he will put the lie to that notion on the first Saturday in May at Churchill.

Second choice might surprise some, and I have to credit my buddy Erik Christensen, one of the better handicappers I know, who told me I had to take a look at this colt as the one to beat: Normandy Invasion. He has been fifth and second in his two major preps, but given a few more jumps would have been saying adios to Verrazano in the Wood. Like Orb, Normandy has one of the best trainers in the business, Chad Brown, and there is no question that he will love the extra distance. Expect him to close brilliantly, but I don’t think he can quite catch Orb. Most likely, thereafter, Brown will skip the Preakness and shoot for the Belmont , but if he can win this one—who knows?—this might be a triple crown horse.

Third choice is one who is being overlooked, one of Pletcher’s plethora of likely Derby starters, Overanalyze. Loved the way he won easily in the Arkansas Derby, appearing to relish the added distance. There is never anything wrong with having the crafty Peruvian, Rafael Bejerano, aboard, and he is another horse, like Orb, who possesses tactical speed. Most of the not-so-wise wise guy handicappers are knocking the Arkansas Derby as a “soft” Derby prep. Just remember that the Arkansas Derby has been the final prep for many more horses that have placed 1^st or 2^nd in the Derby than has the Santa Anita Derby, for the past 15 years. Oaklawn form transfers quite nicely to Churchill, plain and simple, so watch out for Overanalyze. Real reason I like this horse—I must be honest. My wife Amy picked him as the winner of the Arkansas Derby when we were sitting at a nice hotel bar in Nashville, Tennessee, watching the race. I bet her on who would win, and picked Texas Bling with Calvin Borel (I believe Bling is still running; never saw him in the picture). She looked at the horses in the post parade and immediately said, “Overanalyze, and he will win easily.” That’s exactly what happened. Like all half-way intelligent men, I have learned to respect the judgment of my wife, and she told me a few days ago that she still likes him for the Derby.

Fourth choice is a horse who gets himself in trouble, sometimes barely crawling out of the gate, but then closes like a freight train—Java’s War. Anyone who knows me knows that I favor closers—that’s one reason Win Willy is one of my all-time favorite thoroughbreds (another is the fact that a guy named Mac Robertson, who I used to babysit, trains him). Java is a colt who will love the extra distance, and who, like Overanalyze, is blessed with an amazing rider, the French fox, Julien Leparoux. Java’s War was so far behind in the Blue Grass that it looked as though there was no way he could get there, but right at the wire, he did, earning enough points to get him into the Derby. I think he may have run a little too hard in that race, however, so he may bounce a bit in the Derby. Still, for my style of handicapping, and again because this horse is near certain to love the extra distance, I give him a shot.

The Second Tier

With the rest of the likely Derby entries, I will not list them sequentially. However, I do think there are some horses that merit consideration, horses that will be selected as Derby winners by many prognosticators, but who I think belong in this second bunch: Verrazano, Lines of Battle, Vyjack, and Will Take Charge. Actually, I doubt Will Take Charge will be picked by many, but I am including him in this bunch because of information gathered from one particular horseplayer, a guy I often sit by when I am in the turf room at Horsemen’s. He just knows the game, and when I pressed him for one pony he liked in the Derby that might be off the beaten path, Will Take Charge is who he mentioned. I am a bit more dubious about D. Wayne Lukas trying to work train the horse to get the distance (he has had two one mile works-- one at Oaklawn and one at Churchill—in the last two weeks) and also the fact that he will be running the Derby after a 7 week layoff, but as my fellow Turf room denizen noted, Lukas is having a much better year than usual. He does have some fine three year olds, and will be starting at least two in the Derby, most likely. Will Take Charge is the one with the best chance. Vyjack is another strong closer. He had a clear shot at winning the Wood Memorial but had Normandy Invasion go by him easily. Lines of Battle may be the European breakthrough horse in the Derby. Aidan O’Brien has a colt with very intriguing breeding, especially on the broodmare side, and Battle is another one that appears to have tactical speed, if he adjusts to the new environment in America. I will probably put some saver money (this usually means more money I lose!) on Lines of Battle, and box him top and bottom in the exacta with my top four picks. Verrazano deserves respect, and I may just be wrong about him, but I do not think he will get the distance. Normandy Invasion was getting to him rapidly in the Wood. Additionally, Verrazano does not rate kindly. I expect him to be part of the speed but to drop back down the lane.

Third Bunch

Among the horses I will put in my third grouping is Goldencents, one likely to be the selection to win by many. There isn’t much to be impressed about in another speed horse who I doubt can get the mile and a quarter. Tood Pletcher’s Revolutionary (currently Jill Bryne’s top pick) offers a bit more to like with Calvin Borel, who certainly knows his way around the Churchill oval, in the irons. Lately, however, Calvin doesn’t find his way into the winner’s circle very often. Charming Kitten, another Pletcher charge, ran a strong race in the Bluegrass, but it was his to win, and he didn’t get the job done. Palace Malice has run a couple decent races and may continue to improve. Of all the horses I have rated this low, he strikes me as the one who could be laughing at me on the first Saturday in May for picking him this far back. I used to be pretty high on Super Ninety Nine, but then the Santa Anita Derby happened. Still, if he comes back to his old form, he could be part of the speed scenario. But I don’t think that’s a good place to be in this race.

And Maybe To Fill Out The Final Spot In The Superfecta

Some of my buddies, having read my tipsheets in the past, will look here for their selections. Sometimes the steed I insult the most ends up right on top at a good price. It has happened. But it won’t on May 4^th. These horses will be at the back of the pack, running slowly enough that some inebriated infield patrons may try to get to the rail to pet them: Itsmyluckyday, Mylute, Black Onyx, Governor Charlie, Oxbow, Frac Daddy, Falling Sky, and Code West. The one I fear may embarrass me is Frac Daddy; he was 2^nd in the Arkansas Derby, and I usually regard that as a key Derby prep race. But he just isn’t in the same league as most of the field. Black Onyx won the Spiral at Turfway. Someone explain how that race earns 50 points for the Derby while the Illinois Derby counts 0. That’s nonsense. Mylute is trained by Tom Amoss, a decent trainer, but not ready for prime time, and has Rosie Napravnik, who can certainly ride but who has been in a slump at Keeneland recently.Oxbow is getting lots of buzz, for some reason. I like the other Lukas trainee much better. Code West is owned by Gary and Mary West, trained by Bob Baffert, but it appears unlikely that he will enter. Many in Omaha, of course, would have been pulling for him with his local connections, but I just couldn’t put him in any other bunch but this one off his form. Governor Charlie is another Baffert trainee who just beat future 25,000-50,000 claimers at the Sunland Derby. Sorry, Charlie. As for Itsmyluckyday, my reply is “No, it isn’t.” He’s another speed horse that will be finished before the real running starts. Finally, Falling Sky, apparently a believer in Chicken Little’s warning, will realize at some point that he doesn’t belong in this race and head back to the barn.

Some Final Notes

Of course some of these prospective entrants in the Derby may not start. I just went with likely entries at this time, as listed at www.kentuckyderby.com. There are 21 horses I considered, but of course only 20 will start, at most. Some others may still come in if those qualified decide not to go. I will update my predictions next Wednesday, 3 days before the Derby, after the post-position draw, but I doubt I change much. I’m very stubborn.

Hope to see a whole bunch of my readers and commenters at Horsemen’s Park on Saturday, May 4^th for Derby day. You can congratulate me or jeer me after the race. I’ll be the guy with a mint julep, and win or lose, I’ll be smiling.

Fred Robertson