Another year, and we saw some fine three year olds contend in the three biggest races of spring. I thought this might be the year to break the 35 year drought of triple crown champions; I believed Orb was the horse to do it, with Joel Rosario and Shug McGaughey the jockey and trainer to get the job done. But that wasn't to be.
When all was said and run, the D. Wayne Lukas trained Oxbow stood out as the top three year old. His performances in the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont were all gutty, and he looks to be a horse who will always be right there in big races, because he has a ton of heart. When Orb started his sweeping move on the turn, I thought "he's back" but it just wasn't so. The 1 1/2 mile distance was not to his liking and he flattened out, whereas Oxbow kept to task after competing for the lead for much of the race. This time Mike Smith reserved Palace Malice just off the fast pace instead of setting blistering fractions as he did in the Derby, and when the real running started in the stretch, Palace Malice was strong and very impressive in prevailing in the toughest race of all for three year olds.
I know one guy who figured it out, a fellow debate coach and friend in California, Doug Dennis. He was in Vegas, and he spent $6 on one tri box 5-7-12. which yielded a $466 payoff. That is some pretty sweet handicapping, and I certainly wish I had identified Palace Malice as my "horse who took the Preakness off" longshot to use in exotics instead of Golden Soul. But that was one tough race to predict, and to those who figured it out, congratulations.
It has been fun writing this blog for Horsemen's and I do appreciate the many readers. I hope I haven't steered you too wrong with my analysis (well, on the Preakness I took you right off the road and into the ditch, but these things happen!) and that you enjoyed these columns.
Bye, and make some money, honey!
Fred Robertson
Sunday, June 9, 2013
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Belmont Analysis: The Boilermaker Factor
Many years ago, in 1978, I got together with ex-Marine college buddy Tom Edmisten to watch the Belmont Stakes in Wayne, Nebraska, where we were both in graduate school, studying English. I was going to Tom's place to watch the race, so he called me and asked "Is there a traditional drink for the Belmont?" I was pretty sure there wasn't but I decided to make something up (b.s. is always a fine choice in such situations) so I said, "The Boilermaker is the traditional drink of the Belmont Stakes; didn't you learn anything in the Marines?"
So on a June Saturday 35 years ago, Tom and I had several Miller High Lifes (the champagne of bottled beer) with shots of Wild Turkey dropped into them. I'm sure we were both brilliant as all get out that day and handicapped the race perfectly, except that I think I picked Alydar to win, predicting he would pull the upset over Affirmed, after they had run 1,2 in the Derby and Preakness with Affirmed prevailing. That Saturday turned out to be the last day on which the Triple Crown was won--with Affirmed and Steve Cauthen gutting out an incredible stretch battle and barely edging the great Alydar. Despite our Miller/Turkey inebriation, Tom and I both knew we had witnessed something incredible--a Triple Crown won by a champion horse, Affirmed, by defeating Alydar, another of the best race horses ever--three consecutive times.
I'm still waiting to see that feat accomplished again, and I truly believed it was going to happen with Orb this year. But then the Preakness happened. Now it's a whole new ballgame, and though Orb will be favored, no one is quite so certain about his greatness or his ability to bounce back and run strong.
So what's a handicapper to do? I will give it my best shot.
The Best
I, for one, am going to have one boilermaker (still the traditional drink of the Belmont but a drink which should be consumed in moderation) and bet on Orb. This time he won't be 3-5, he's still the best of these, the pace scenario should be much better than in the Preakness, and Joel Rosario and Shug McGaughey are still the best connections any horse could have. The Belmont, however, is very wide open, and the large field could lead to traffic problems for Orb, so he is far from a sure thing. I learned my lesson about "sure things" in the Preakness. Nevertheless, I will be leading chants of "Ooooorrrrbbbbbb" in the turf room at Horsemen's and hoping that does something positive for one of my favorite horses instead of merely irritating other horse playing patrons (who really should loosen up and have some fun anyway).
Beyond Orb, there are three other horses I like who also have legitimate shots at winning. The first is Golden Soul. He is getting almost no notice or buzz from wise guys, despite the fact that he ran very well in the Derby and appears to love the extra distance. Yesterday I watched Dan Illmann and Mike Beer's individual contender Belmont analysis; they both said Golden Soul had too easy of a trip in the Derby, and that the pace scenario was ideal for him, and these were the only reasons he ran well. That's nonsense. Yes, the very fast front end pace helped him, but he still came from 15th place 18 lengths out of it to finish a good second to Orb, closing very strong. Sure, Albarado kept him on the rail and it worked, because lots of horses were tiring after the blistering pace and drifting out, opening up the inside, but that's just smart riding; and Albarado, who is making a solid comeback after some down years, is back aboard. Trainer Dallas
Stewart wisely kept Golden Soul out of the Preakness and stayed at Churchill, where he has continued to train forwardly. He's the one who has the best chance to pull the upset, and he will be 10-1 to 15-1.
Next is Oxbow. I was wrong to dismiss him in the Preakness and I'm not making that mistake again. This is a high quality horse and he is bred to love the distance. I don't believe he will need to be in front here but will find himself a nice stalking position behind Freedom Child, who clearly has to be sent hard, since that is the only way he has ever run well, on the lead. Oxbow's form shows his ability to rate just off a fast pace, which is what I believe Stevens will do. He will be right there when the real running starts at the head of that long Belmont stretch.
Finally, I think Overanalyze should be in everyone's exacta, trifecta, and superfecta mix. Looking at his past performances, I noticed a very consistent pattern: good race/not so good race. He won his first at Saratoga, was fourth in the Hopeful, won the Futurity at Belmont, was third in the Iroquois at Churchill, had his best win in the Remsen at Aqueduct, was 5th in the Gotham, then won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, and was 11th in the Derby, experiencing a bit of a troubled trip. That makes him "due" to run another good race if he stays to pattern, and he also gets John Velazquez back aboard, a definite plus at Belmont, despite the fact that Johnny V has been struggling to get wins lately. Overanalyze has been working at Belmont since the Derby, which should make him acclimated and comfortable. Morning line says 12-1 and I say that means you better be including this horse in your wagers. Plus, this is the horse my gorgeous (and extremely tolerant of my weirdness) wife Amy confidently picked to win the Arkansas Derby when we were sitting in a bar in Nashville watching the race. That remains some powerful karmic juju which I must consider in my handicapping calculus.
Those are my top four selections, and I recommend putting all four together in exacta, trifecta, and superfecta boxes. This race could really go any which way. I will be betting some money on Orb, and most likely a little across the board on both Golden Soul and Overanalyze, but mainly focusing on exotics with those four boxed.
The Rest
Revolutionary is one of Pletcher's brigade (5 horses!) who does appear to be reasonable to play off his Derby performance, since he did have some trouble in his Derby run and still ended up third. I have not liked the way Castellano is riding lately, although he is definitely a solid Belmont rider, and many will consider going back to him a plus. I don't like this move, however, and I'm not sure Revolutionary isn't due to take a step back in this race. He's clearly the horse that can beat any of my top four if he has his best day, but I think he will be 5-1 while there will be much better odds on Overanalyze and Golden Soul, so I'm playing against him....with some trepidation.
I also respect Palace Malice as a horse with a chance. Smith won't have him out in front running suicide fractions like those he posted in the Derby, and his works at Belmont are very strong. I expect to see him do much better than he did in Kentucky.
Plenty of bettors will support Freedom Child and Unlimited Budget but they will be mistaken. Freedom Child ran one big race, in the slop, clear on the lead in the Peter Pan. That race did not have Oxbow in it. This race does. I watched Unlimited Budget's Kentucky Oaks. She was in position to win that race, and just couldn't do it. I'm no sexist, but if she can't beat fillies, she isn't beating the boys, and putting Rosie Napravnek on her does not help her cause.
Will Take Charge is being run by Lukas for some unknown reason. He's going in the wrong direction and needs a break, not a rider switch back to Jon Court. Vijack is taking another shot after running horribly in the Derby and switching to Leparoux. He has been working well at Belmont and may make some noise late but I don't think he can be with the top 4 or 5. Incognito is a little intriguing but his last win came in a 25000 optional claiming race at Aqueduct, hardly a great item for his resume. Midnight Taboo is probably being entered by Pletcher to help provide pace competition for Freedom Child but will have no chance in the stretch.
I don't know what Frac Daddy is doing in this race but perhaps Magic City Thoroughbred Partners, who own him, do believe in magic, because it will take some kind of mystical conjuring to get this horse in a win picture for the Belmont. Giant Finish has run a few decent races but Sunrise Stables Golden Goose Enterprises, the ownership partnership here, has apparently been into the Grey Goose rather than Golden Goose-- if they think he has more than a snowball's chance in hell.
Hope to see a bunch of happy punters at Horsemen's Park on Saturday for the Belmont. It's always a great challenge for three year olds to go a mile and a half, which throws some crazyf unpredictability into the mix. Sort of like dropping a shot of Wild Turkey into a Miller High Life. You never know what might happen next.
Fred Robertson
So on a June Saturday 35 years ago, Tom and I had several Miller High Lifes (the champagne of bottled beer) with shots of Wild Turkey dropped into them. I'm sure we were both brilliant as all get out that day and handicapped the race perfectly, except that I think I picked Alydar to win, predicting he would pull the upset over Affirmed, after they had run 1,2 in the Derby and Preakness with Affirmed prevailing. That Saturday turned out to be the last day on which the Triple Crown was won--with Affirmed and Steve Cauthen gutting out an incredible stretch battle and barely edging the great Alydar. Despite our Miller/Turkey inebriation, Tom and I both knew we had witnessed something incredible--a Triple Crown won by a champion horse, Affirmed, by defeating Alydar, another of the best race horses ever--three consecutive times.
I'm still waiting to see that feat accomplished again, and I truly believed it was going to happen with Orb this year. But then the Preakness happened. Now it's a whole new ballgame, and though Orb will be favored, no one is quite so certain about his greatness or his ability to bounce back and run strong.
So what's a handicapper to do? I will give it my best shot.
The Best
I, for one, am going to have one boilermaker (still the traditional drink of the Belmont but a drink which should be consumed in moderation) and bet on Orb. This time he won't be 3-5, he's still the best of these, the pace scenario should be much better than in the Preakness, and Joel Rosario and Shug McGaughey are still the best connections any horse could have. The Belmont, however, is very wide open, and the large field could lead to traffic problems for Orb, so he is far from a sure thing. I learned my lesson about "sure things" in the Preakness. Nevertheless, I will be leading chants of "Ooooorrrrbbbbbb" in the turf room at Horsemen's and hoping that does something positive for one of my favorite horses instead of merely irritating other horse playing patrons (who really should loosen up and have some fun anyway).
Beyond Orb, there are three other horses I like who also have legitimate shots at winning. The first is Golden Soul. He is getting almost no notice or buzz from wise guys, despite the fact that he ran very well in the Derby and appears to love the extra distance. Yesterday I watched Dan Illmann and Mike Beer's individual contender Belmont analysis; they both said Golden Soul had too easy of a trip in the Derby, and that the pace scenario was ideal for him, and these were the only reasons he ran well. That's nonsense. Yes, the very fast front end pace helped him, but he still came from 15th place 18 lengths out of it to finish a good second to Orb, closing very strong. Sure, Albarado kept him on the rail and it worked, because lots of horses were tiring after the blistering pace and drifting out, opening up the inside, but that's just smart riding; and Albarado, who is making a solid comeback after some down years, is back aboard. Trainer Dallas
Stewart wisely kept Golden Soul out of the Preakness and stayed at Churchill, where he has continued to train forwardly. He's the one who has the best chance to pull the upset, and he will be 10-1 to 15-1.
Next is Oxbow. I was wrong to dismiss him in the Preakness and I'm not making that mistake again. This is a high quality horse and he is bred to love the distance. I don't believe he will need to be in front here but will find himself a nice stalking position behind Freedom Child, who clearly has to be sent hard, since that is the only way he has ever run well, on the lead. Oxbow's form shows his ability to rate just off a fast pace, which is what I believe Stevens will do. He will be right there when the real running starts at the head of that long Belmont stretch.
Finally, I think Overanalyze should be in everyone's exacta, trifecta, and superfecta mix. Looking at his past performances, I noticed a very consistent pattern: good race/not so good race. He won his first at Saratoga, was fourth in the Hopeful, won the Futurity at Belmont, was third in the Iroquois at Churchill, had his best win in the Remsen at Aqueduct, was 5th in the Gotham, then won the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, and was 11th in the Derby, experiencing a bit of a troubled trip. That makes him "due" to run another good race if he stays to pattern, and he also gets John Velazquez back aboard, a definite plus at Belmont, despite the fact that Johnny V has been struggling to get wins lately. Overanalyze has been working at Belmont since the Derby, which should make him acclimated and comfortable. Morning line says 12-1 and I say that means you better be including this horse in your wagers. Plus, this is the horse my gorgeous (and extremely tolerant of my weirdness) wife Amy confidently picked to win the Arkansas Derby when we were sitting in a bar in Nashville watching the race. That remains some powerful karmic juju which I must consider in my handicapping calculus.
Those are my top four selections, and I recommend putting all four together in exacta, trifecta, and superfecta boxes. This race could really go any which way. I will be betting some money on Orb, and most likely a little across the board on both Golden Soul and Overanalyze, but mainly focusing on exotics with those four boxed.
The Rest
Revolutionary is one of Pletcher's brigade (5 horses!) who does appear to be reasonable to play off his Derby performance, since he did have some trouble in his Derby run and still ended up third. I have not liked the way Castellano is riding lately, although he is definitely a solid Belmont rider, and many will consider going back to him a plus. I don't like this move, however, and I'm not sure Revolutionary isn't due to take a step back in this race. He's clearly the horse that can beat any of my top four if he has his best day, but I think he will be 5-1 while there will be much better odds on Overanalyze and Golden Soul, so I'm playing against him....with some trepidation.
I also respect Palace Malice as a horse with a chance. Smith won't have him out in front running suicide fractions like those he posted in the Derby, and his works at Belmont are very strong. I expect to see him do much better than he did in Kentucky.
Plenty of bettors will support Freedom Child and Unlimited Budget but they will be mistaken. Freedom Child ran one big race, in the slop, clear on the lead in the Peter Pan. That race did not have Oxbow in it. This race does. I watched Unlimited Budget's Kentucky Oaks. She was in position to win that race, and just couldn't do it. I'm no sexist, but if she can't beat fillies, she isn't beating the boys, and putting Rosie Napravnek on her does not help her cause.
Will Take Charge is being run by Lukas for some unknown reason. He's going in the wrong direction and needs a break, not a rider switch back to Jon Court. Vijack is taking another shot after running horribly in the Derby and switching to Leparoux. He has been working well at Belmont and may make some noise late but I don't think he can be with the top 4 or 5. Incognito is a little intriguing but his last win came in a 25000 optional claiming race at Aqueduct, hardly a great item for his resume. Midnight Taboo is probably being entered by Pletcher to help provide pace competition for Freedom Child but will have no chance in the stretch.
I don't know what Frac Daddy is doing in this race but perhaps Magic City Thoroughbred Partners, who own him, do believe in magic, because it will take some kind of mystical conjuring to get this horse in a win picture for the Belmont. Giant Finish has run a few decent races but Sunrise Stables Golden Goose Enterprises, the ownership partnership here, has apparently been into the Grey Goose rather than Golden Goose-- if they think he has more than a snowball's chance in hell.
Hope to see a bunch of happy punters at Horsemen's Park on Saturday for the Belmont. It's always a great challenge for three year olds to go a mile and a half, which throws some crazyf unpredictability into the mix. Sort of like dropping a shot of Wild Turkey into a Miller High Life. You never know what might happen next.
Fred Robertson
Monday, June 3, 2013
Getting ready for the Belmont
It's been awhile since I've written anything here, and honestly, it's been a nice vacation. I had to reassess my ability to read a racing form for awhile after telling everyone and their dogs to bet their life's savings on Orb in the Preakness. The race was just one of those deals: a horse who loves the front got it as well as no challenger, had a fine, experienced rider who is great with a horse on the lead--Gary Stevens, and had no other speed challenge him. Rosario's only chance on Orb was to be right next to Oxbow, or perhaps a couple lengths back, but he would have had to be psychic to figure out the race would develop in the way it did. Instead he realized the pace was slow, rushed up heading into the final turn, but got Orb in between horses, which he didn't like. The rest, as they say, is history. Oxbow won easily, and Orb, despite running hard and passing some horses down the stretch, was a disappointing 4th at 3-5.
Eventually I went back to Horsemen's (it was the day after the Preakness, actually) and it seems lately I have gotten my handicapping mojo working once more, with the help of my friends: Jaritza Medina and her confidence in a horse named Commando Kat; Win Willy and his crushing victory on Saturday at Delaware; and veteran jockey Gary Boulanger, who gave a great ride to a first-time starter named Mighty Bear at Woodbine yesterday, and got me 5th in the Sunday daily contest that was part of last weekend's handicapping contest at Horsemen's. I guess Jaritza is my only friend of those three, although I have petted Win Willy a few times and he didn't bite me. I'd like to give Gary Boulanger a big hug, but that would probably just frighten him.
So now it's back to work, trying to figure out who will take the rematch of Oxbow and Orb in the most challenging race of the Triple Crown--the Belmont. At a mile and a half, it's a very difficult test for three year olds, and some of this year's crop of sophomore runners who figured to benefit from the added distance--Java's War and Mylute, for example--are not running. Another who I thought might take another shot at greatness, Normandy's Invasion, is also on the bench. So most of the focus is on the two "O" horses, with good reason: both were very strong in the first two/thirds of the three race trial. The wise guys are all talking about Freedom Child, new to the mix off his Peter Pan win, and the wise gals are excited about the filly Unlimited Budget with Rosie Napravnek aboard. Overanalyze is working brilliantly, Revolutionary certainly ran a fine Derby, and Vyjack is one who may benefit with the added distance--so they are getting some buzz.
But no one is talking much about Golden Soul, who was 2nd in the Derby, and who is improving massively each time he goes longer distances. Additionally, his trainer, Dallas Stewart, has wisely not worked the horse to death, giving him nothing but easy five furlong breezes, and keeping him home at Churchill the whole time. He could very well run another big race, and if he does, he will be tough.
Before I make any final selections, I will need to see the post position draw Wednesday, and also try to figure out the pace scenario a little better than I did for the Preakness. Will post late Wednesday or Thursday with full analysis/predictions. Get ready for another big day at Horsemen's this Saturday for the Belmont Stakes!
Fred Robertson
Eventually I went back to Horsemen's (it was the day after the Preakness, actually) and it seems lately I have gotten my handicapping mojo working once more, with the help of my friends: Jaritza Medina and her confidence in a horse named Commando Kat; Win Willy and his crushing victory on Saturday at Delaware; and veteran jockey Gary Boulanger, who gave a great ride to a first-time starter named Mighty Bear at Woodbine yesterday, and got me 5th in the Sunday daily contest that was part of last weekend's handicapping contest at Horsemen's. I guess Jaritza is my only friend of those three, although I have petted Win Willy a few times and he didn't bite me. I'd like to give Gary Boulanger a big hug, but that would probably just frighten him.
So now it's back to work, trying to figure out who will take the rematch of Oxbow and Orb in the most challenging race of the Triple Crown--the Belmont. At a mile and a half, it's a very difficult test for three year olds, and some of this year's crop of sophomore runners who figured to benefit from the added distance--Java's War and Mylute, for example--are not running. Another who I thought might take another shot at greatness, Normandy's Invasion, is also on the bench. So most of the focus is on the two "O" horses, with good reason: both were very strong in the first two/thirds of the three race trial. The wise guys are all talking about Freedom Child, new to the mix off his Peter Pan win, and the wise gals are excited about the filly Unlimited Budget with Rosie Napravnek aboard. Overanalyze is working brilliantly, Revolutionary certainly ran a fine Derby, and Vyjack is one who may benefit with the added distance--so they are getting some buzz.
But no one is talking much about Golden Soul, who was 2nd in the Derby, and who is improving massively each time he goes longer distances. Additionally, his trainer, Dallas Stewart, has wisely not worked the horse to death, giving him nothing but easy five furlong breezes, and keeping him home at Churchill the whole time. He could very well run another big race, and if he does, he will be tough.
Before I make any final selections, I will need to see the post position draw Wednesday, and also try to figure out the pace scenario a little better than I did for the Preakness. Will post late Wednesday or Thursday with full analysis/predictions. Get ready for another big day at Horsemen's this Saturday for the Belmont Stakes!
Fred Robertson
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