It's been awhile since I've written anything here, and honestly, it's been a nice vacation. I had to reassess my ability to read a racing form for awhile after telling everyone and their dogs to bet their life's savings on Orb in the Preakness. The race was just one of those deals: a horse who loves the front got it as well as no challenger, had a fine, experienced rider who is great with a horse on the lead--Gary Stevens, and had no other speed challenge him. Rosario's only chance on Orb was to be right next to Oxbow, or perhaps a couple lengths back, but he would have had to be psychic to figure out the race would develop in the way it did. Instead he realized the pace was slow, rushed up heading into the final turn, but got Orb in between horses, which he didn't like. The rest, as they say, is history. Oxbow won easily, and Orb, despite running hard and passing some horses down the stretch, was a disappointing 4th at 3-5.
Eventually I went back to Horsemen's (it was the day after the Preakness, actually) and it seems lately I have gotten my handicapping mojo working once more, with the help of my friends: Jaritza Medina and her confidence in a horse named Commando Kat; Win Willy and his crushing victory on Saturday at Delaware; and veteran jockey Gary Boulanger, who gave a great ride to a first-time starter named Mighty Bear at Woodbine yesterday, and got me 5th in the Sunday daily contest that was part of last weekend's handicapping contest at Horsemen's. I guess Jaritza is my only friend of those three, although I have petted Win Willy a few times and he didn't bite me. I'd like to give Gary Boulanger a big hug, but that would probably just frighten him.
So now it's back to work, trying to figure out who will take the rematch of Oxbow and Orb in the most challenging race of the Triple Crown--the Belmont. At a mile and a half, it's a very difficult test for three year olds, and some of this year's crop of sophomore runners who figured to benefit from the added distance--Java's War and Mylute, for example--are not running. Another who I thought might take another shot at greatness, Normandy's Invasion, is also on the bench. So most of the focus is on the two "O" horses, with good reason: both were very strong in the first two/thirds of the three race trial. The wise guys are all talking about Freedom Child, new to the mix off his Peter Pan win, and the wise gals are excited about the filly Unlimited Budget with Rosie Napravnek aboard. Overanalyze is working brilliantly, Revolutionary certainly ran a fine Derby, and Vyjack is one who may benefit with the added distance--so they are getting some buzz.
But no one is talking much about Golden Soul, who was 2nd in the Derby, and who is improving massively each time he goes longer distances. Additionally, his trainer, Dallas Stewart, has wisely not worked the horse to death, giving him nothing but easy five furlong breezes, and keeping him home at Churchill the whole time. He could very well run another big race, and if he does, he will be tough.
Before I make any final selections, I will need to see the post position draw Wednesday, and also try to figure out the pace scenario a little better than I did for the Preakness. Will post late Wednesday or Thursday with full analysis/predictions. Get ready for another big day at Horsemen's this Saturday for the Belmont Stakes!
Fred Robertson
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