The Hubris of a Horseplayer

I posted this on Facebook about an hour ago:

After titling my last blog "There is Such a Thing as a Sure Thing" I will be writing a new one called "The Hubris of a Horseplayer" in a day or two. I was completely wrong about the Preakness. But I can't blame Orb, his trainer, or his jockey. Horses are like people--great people make terrible decisions, have awful days, don't get it right. Or they try their hardest, but just plain fail to win. You've been that person, I've been that person (far more than I'd like to admit), we've all been that person. I've watched the race four times now, trying to figure out what could have gone differently, but instead of trying to figure it out, I just want to go pet Orb, take him out to graze, give him a carrot; tell Shug McGaughey he is one of the best trainers ever in horse racing; and let Joel Rosario know that I hope his riding career is safe and as long as he wants it to be, because he will most likely go down as one of the greatest jockeys in horse-racing history. I believe Orb will be back strong (did anyone else notice how he kept trying, even when he knew he couldn't win, passing two horses in his last few strides?) because he has a big heart, and he's a Kentucky Derby champion, and one race that didn't go well cannot take that away from him. I love that horse. Oooorrrrrbbbbbb!!!!!!!!!

I decided to just go ahead and write my new blog post this morning, but I am not going to add too much more.  I know there were horseplayers who figured out that the pace scenario could be in Oxbow's favor if he got the lead easily and could rate.  To those who figured this out, all I can say is congratulations on some great handicapping, for figuring out what would happen before it happened, which is what betting on horses is all about, and which is what makes the game so incredibly fascinating.

 I also have to give kudos to Gary Stevens.  He decided to make a comeback and start riding again after doing a fine job as an actor  (he was brilliant in the HBO horse-racing series "Luck") and race commentator, and yesterday he was back at the top of his game--winning on Skyring at 24-1 in the 11th race wire to wire and then repeating that feat on Oxbow at 15-1 in the Preakness.  It's impossible not to feel great for Gary Stevens, and yes, even D. Wayne Lukas, two old pro's who came through yesterday in style.

For the next three weeks, I will be trying to figure out the Belmont, which presents an amazing challenge: who will decide to run?  will we see a big field because so many owners/trainers can make a legitimate case that their horses have a shot? or will many figure they should not push their top three year olds too hard right now, preserving them for important fall races?  is Mylute, who has closed very strong in both the Derby and the Preakness, going to give Rosie Napravnik a huge chance to win the final leg of the triple crown? will Orb resurge when he returns to his home base in Belmont? will Normandy Invasion be back in competition, or is Chad Brown thinking he doesn't really want to run a mile and a half? did the sealed slop at Churchill ruin Itsmyluckyday's chances and is he now right back at his best?  is Oxbow just too good and once again capable of going wire to wire if no one goes with him?

Who knows the answer to those questions.  One thing I do know is that I will never title another blog "There is Such a Thing as a Sure Thing."

Because there isn't.

But I still love Orb.

Fred Robertson