Derby Predictions: Three Days and Counting!

The Selections

I told you I was stubborn. Well, I am.  Nothing I have seen in the workouts, or in the reading I have done, has changed my mind, or my predictions, not even slightly.  Orb and Normandy Invasion remain my top two selections, since their preparation for the Derby has been flawless.

Orb also has the benefit of  Joel Rosario in the irons, and Rosario is currently red hot. He finished the Keeneland spring meet brilliantly, and has continued to pilot horses at Churchill with the same intelligence and skill. Orb is listed as the 7-2 favorite, but breaking from the 16 hole, which won't hurt him at all, may discourage some betting on him.  Expect more like 4-1 or 9-2, depending on how many more races Rosario wins this week and on Saturday.  Orb will probably be the favorite or second favorite with Verrazano being the other horse to receive the most support.

 Normandy Invasion has been working effortlessly yet fast.  All systems are go, and the morning line is 12-1.  That's wrong, since he will probably be around 7-1.  Lots of wise folks are identifying him as a leading contender, and that has to bring down his odds. Chad Brown sticks with Javier Castellano aboard, who nearly got Normandy up for the win in the Wood Memorial, a key prep race.  Nothing has happened which makes me like this horse any less.

It's a great bet to box Orb and Normandy Invasion in the exacta.  Exactas pay well with such a large field and if these two run 1,2 I will be very happy on Saturday.

Overanalyze and Java's War remain the rest of the superfecta in my view, simply because I love both of their last outs, in the Arkansas Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes.

When horses win their prep race easily and impressively, as did Overanalyze,  Mike Watchmaker disparages the prep race as "soft" and sets morning line odds of 15-1.  It's quite possible those odds will be accurate, which means that Overanalyze is a solid bet, a much better wager than on one of Todd Pletcher's other charges, the afore-mentioned likely co-favorite Verrazano.  Remember, my wife loves this horse, and she's much smarter than I will ever be.  I love my wife so I have to bet on Overanalyze and use him with the two choices above and the one below for trifecta and superfecta boxes.

My other choice in the top four remains Java's War.  Yes, he was all out to win the Bluegrass, but he won it. He has Leparoux right back in the saddle, and he will be flying, with the mile and a quarter to his advantage without question.

The Horses Others Like But I Say You Should Not Use

Those who know me would say "Fred doesn't like to bet on speed horses and will throw them all out."  Those who know me are correct about this, but I am rational enough to select a speed horse when the race shapes up in a way to benefit the speed.  The Derby is very rarely that race, and it certainly isn't that race this year. Therefore, I recommend you throw out Goldencents, bound to be bet down when he most likely will not light the board;  as well as Verrazano, who will not get the distance.  Both will be overbet and will not represent good value, unless I'm dead wrong and that's the exacta instead of Orb/Normandy Invasion.  In that case, I eat crow and try to hit the Derby next year, which is usually what happens.

For some reason, others are high on Oxbow and Revolutionary, but I see nothing much to like in these two, and think you should resist the temptation to bet on D. Wayne Lukas' weaker entry and another of Pletcher's  plentitude of ponies that will likely finish in the middle of the pack.

Horses Who Have A Chance To Pull A Big Upset

In my previous blog post, I already identified these darkhorses: Lines of Battle, Will Take Charge, Vijack, and Palace Malice.  I'm also going to say Frac Daddy has a chance to be part of a trifecta or superfecta, and pump up the price.  Lines of Battle is still my number one longshot selection who I will be betting across the board and using top and bottom in exactas with my top four picks.  Why not?  Maybe it's time for Aidan O'Brien to get over the hump in the Derby.  Remember, even Todd Pletcher eventually did win the Roses.

The Rest

A couple three year olds who weren't expected to start are now in due to defections and reasonable decisions, like those made by Bob Baffert in going with neither of his potential Derby starters. Golden Soul and Giant Finish have enough Derby points to make the gate, but not enough Derby quality to make a difference.  Fear the Kitten is on the also eligible and will most likely run if there are scratches in the next few days or the morning of the Derby.  Again, Fear the Kitten may run but I seriously doubt if he's in the running down the stretch if he does draw in. Black Onyx, Mylute, Itsmyluckyday, Falling Sky,and Charming Kitten round out the field, in the back.

Intangibles

You never know--it might rain constantly in Louisville for the next three days and make Churchill a muddy mess.  It certainly appears like it's going to do that here.  Current predictions call for rain showers on Derby Day in Louisville. However, we all know weather forecasters are about as reliable as Kentucky Derby handicappers.  I am not going to speculate on how a sloppy or muddy track would affect the race, but it's something you should consider in your final betting decisions should the weather turn as ugly in Kentucky as what we are experiencing today in Omaha.

Last Words

I make my selections with confidence, because that's the only way to make predictions, but I know I very easily could be more wrong than the newspapers that said "Dewey Wins!"  Yes, that reference shows my age, and the reference may also make you think about Harry Truman and Missouri--the "show me" state.  If you disagree with my handicapping, go ahead and "show me" in your comments, and perhaps we can have a lively discussion leading up to the greatest horse race in the world!

Whatever you decide to wager, I wish you the best of days this Saturday and an exciting time at Horsemen's Park or at home at your own Derby party (but the Horsemen's Park Derby Day Party is the place to be!)  Make some money, honey.

Fred Robertson